Why are egg prices rising again?

For more than two years, farmers have fought a battle with a fatal strain of bird flu that continues to disrupt the U.S. egg supply. Recent outbreaks of the virus across multiple states claimed roughly 8% of the U.S. flock of egg-laying hens in just four months. With limited supplies, shoppers have seen skyrocketing prices at some grocery stores, and many have encountered buying restrictions or empty shelves.

Egg prices rose nearly 37% in one year

The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED site.

The latest consumer price index, or CPI, shows that the price of eggs is up 36.8% from where it was a year ago. That’s in contrast to the trajectory of food prices overall, which rose just 2.5% in the past year.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data tracking egg prices goes back to at least 1980, when large, Grade A eggs cost $0.88 a dozen, not adjusted for inflation. Before February 2022, the average cost of a dozen had largely stayed below $2 since March 2016. Then, the price of eggs more than doubled from the beginning of 2022 until hitting its peak of $4.82 per dozen in January 2023.

Why are eggs so expensive?

The pandemic and inflation play a role in rising egg prices, but the real culprit is an outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and quickly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history. As of Jan. 14, the virus has affected more than 134 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Generally, as supplies tighten, egg prices rise. Previously, it was common for retailers to keep egg prices low,  because eggs effectively draw shoppers into the store. But now, pricing eggs too low could mean selling out.

When will egg prices settle down?

Prices will remain volatile until producers can rebuild their flocks and recover egg production levels. But that’s hard to do when the virus remains out of control. Major egg producers continue to report new bird flu cases around the country.

Since October, when the latest spate of outbreaks began, reports of bird flu spanning eight states, including Arizona, California, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Washington, have affected more than 25 million egg-laying hens. 

There are roughly 312 million egg-laying hens in the U.S. population, according to the USDA. That means nearly 8% of all U.S. egg layers were lost in the past four months.